Published Date: September 23, 2019
FINANCIAL REBOOT, BLACK SWAN EVENT, HONG KONG PROTEST
U.S. Navy Confirms UFO, 18 Black Nobility Families, Repo Market Intervention, CA Earthquakes Squeals, Increasing, Flush Heavy Metals, Ancient Records 2nd Sun, Gospel of Thomas, Super Charge Your Sleep
Weekly Geopolitical News
The financial markets last week point to some sort of black swan event on the horizon. This could be—cross your fingers and knock on wood—the signs of the long-awaited implosion of the U.S. Corporate government. It could also be the signal for a new Bretton Woods-style reboot of the world’s financial system.
To understand, take a look at these two graphs from September 19th. The first is the Repo market, and the second is SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)—the replacement for Libor.
The Repo market is basically a market where banks etc. use long-term high-quality financial instruments like U.S. government bonds as collateral to borrow here/now cash. The second is the rate at which banks lend to each other. The jump from 2% to 10% in the Repo market in a single day either means insiders think U.S. bonds are about to become worthless, or else some huge bank is about to go bust and so nobody wants to hand any cash over to them.
The second, SOFR, moved 282 basis points, in a market where people typically freak out over a move of even 20 basis points. The SOFR move, at the very least, indicates that a mega-bank or several mega-banks could not get money from other banks. This sort of move was last seen at the time of the Lehman shock.
The privately-owned Fed has been trying to calm things down by offering to dish out $75 billion per day between now and October 10th. That’s interesting timing because the U.S. Corporate government has a payment deadline on September 30th and would be given until around October 10th (or the 17th at the latest) to come up with the money if it failed to pay up on September 30th.
A British Royal family member explained, “The financial industry has been bankrupted by …
… a decision by the U.S. judiciary to allow class-action suits against them. The volatility is just an aftershock of that,” he explains.
The links below show that many banks, including J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Bank of New York Mellon, Societe Generale, Commerzbank, and others are now being treated as organized crime gangs and being hit with RICO and other anti-gang laws.
Needless to say, these criminal cases will lead to bank-busting lawsuits by the victims of these financial misdeeds.
These legal moves are not the only sign the financial system is collapsing. A look at U.S. loan markets reveals that a complete disaster has already begun. There is now $3,128 trillion worth of high-risk loans or bonds to either sub-prime real estate or iffy corporations.
That’s almost double the amount seen just before the Lehman shock. Also, U.S. private-sector financial assets are now 5.6 times the U.S. GDP, meaning they would have to fall close to 80% to be equal to GDP.
Remember, this does not include the over $200 trillion dollars (10 times GDP) in unfunded liabilities the U.S. government has.
One more shocker: The U.S. government-owned housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have a total of $6 billion ($3 billion each) as a capital buffer, but own or guarantee almost $5 trillion in mortgage securities. That means they are leveraged over 1,000 to one. In other words, if housing prices fall even 0.01%, they are bust. And guess what, folks; there are signs housing prices have in fact started falling.
No wonder finance guru Jim Rogers predicts the entire financial system will collapse within 2 or 3 years. He is probably an optimist.
Central Bankers’ Fatal Conceit: “The Goldilocks Syndrome”
Central bankers suffer from what some might call fatal conceit. They actually believe that if they tinker enough, they can come up with a policy that will work “just right.” Maybe we should call it the Goldilocks Syndrome.
Of course, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have lots of critics — President Trump for instance. After the last Fed rate cut, he blasted Powell and company on Twitter tweeting, “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No ‘guts,’ no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!”
Trump wants the Fed to cut deeper. Trump isn’t necessarily wrong to criticize the bank. But he appears to suffer from the same conceit as the central bankers, imagining there is a “right” policy that will make everything work.
He doesn’t know what that is either.
Peter Schiff criticizes the Fed as well. In a recent podcast, he said no matter what the central bank does, or what they call it – it’s going to stink to high heaven. The difference between Powell and critics like Trump, and Peter is that Peter doesn’t advocate for some perfect interest rate or ideal monetary policy.
Economics professor Gary M. Galles is of the same mind as Peter. As he pointed out in a recent article published at the Mises Wire, nobody knows the “correct monetary course” the Fed should follow. It’s not something that can be planned.
Jerome Powell has only been Fed chairman since last February, but he has already been initiated into the worst part of the job. Whatever the Fed does, some complain that it didn’t act sooner and/or do enough, while others complain that it acted too soon and/or did too much. The sniping also extends to every word he did or didn’t say and when he did or didn’t say it. And even the president who appointed him frequently treats him like his 2020 scapegoat-in-waiting.
When they focus on particular failings by the Fed, critics may well be correct in their objections. But they typically go farther and propose “solutions” which reflect a presumption that they know what the proper Fed policy is for whatever economic problems they see. Unfortunately, not only might their vision of the problems be faulty or incomplete, or both, but there is a huge gap between identifying monetary policy issues and knowing the right answers to them — between Fed snipers and Fed saviors. The fact is that if we rely on discretionary monetary policy, nobody knows precisely what monetary course the Fed should follow.
The first problem facing successful discretionary stabilization or manipulation of the economy is the long and variable time lags between monetary policy changes and their effects on the economy (most often, but not always, 6 to 18 months). In addition, the lag before output and employment response tends to be shorter than the lag before prices respond, so that solving an employment problem can create a lagged inflation problem or solving an inflation problem could create a lagged employment problem. But even apart from that “solutions causing new problems” issue (or how much of monetary-policy-induced investment is really malinvestment, and the future problems that will impose), the different and varying lags mean that for Fed policy to effectively stabilize or stimulate the economy, it must focus on uncertain future output and inflation patterns, not present circumstances.
That problem is compounded by the notorious difficulty of accurately forecasting turning points in the economy, when it is most essential to read the tea leaves correctly. When things are stable, there is little which could improve that stability, so there is little need to accurately forecast when little or nothing should be done. But responding appropriately to sharp turning points in the economy requires that the right thing be done, to the right extent, at the right time. Yet earlier this year, Simon Kennedy and Peter Coy cited not just the “widespread failure to forecast America’s Great Recession,” but a marked pattern of unreliability over time and across countries. Other indicators have similar problems. For example, downturns in the most-watched forecasting tool, the index of leading indicators, have preceded recessions by half a year to two-and-a-half years since the 1950s, but did a poor job of predicting their magnitudes, and have even predicted recessions that did not happen on multiple occasions. Absent highly reliable, commonly accepted forecasts, deciding what to do and when to do it is a far cry from a reliable science. This is even more so when every other country’s future developments and policy changes (e.g., Brexit, slowing international growth and negative interest rates in some countries) must also be factored into decisions.
Active monetary policy is made even more difficult by the continually changing torrent of economic data the Fed must rely on to judge the state of the economy. That torrent includes everything from new claims for unemployment and purchasing managers’ surveys to raw materials prices and new home sales, each released at a different time, and reams of international data, as well. But every piece of data has limitations in both timeliness and accuracy (limitations that are virtually unknown to the public). Further, the data typically sends conflicting signals about the state of the economy (e.g., overall inflation and “core” inflation may be acting differently, or employment growth can be slowing while unemployment rates are falling). When no statistic is precisely right, deciding which combination of conflicting pieces of evidence provides the most accurate read this time is a task beyond our knowledge, made even harder by multiple potential interpretations of “what it all means.”
The difficulty in conducting active monetary policy “correctly” is compounded still further by the need to accurately predict how, and how quickly, the public’s expectations will respond to any policy change. The Fed needs to anticipate how its actions and its members’ statements will alter expectations about both the present and future state of the economy and the path of future policy. It also needs to take account of what will then happen to expectations as each subsequent piece of economic news, good or bad, emerges afterward. In doing so, the Fed is hampered by the fact that today’s expectations will not change exactly as in the past, because the situation is never exactly the same and because people have adapted to some extent from what has happened in the past. But no one knows how much current reactions will differ from earlier episodes.
There is always the potential for valid criticisms of active monetary policy, particularly about the necessity, timing, magnitude, and mechanisms of policy changes (including innovations, such as the introduction on interest payments on bank reserves and their effects), and how clearly the Fed’s intentions are communicated. However, in the blurry and constantly changing real world of conflicting economic indicators and forecasts, competing interests and policy surprises, activist policymakers do not know exactly what the “right” policy is today. Neither do their activist critics, however. Yet this should not come as a surprise. As Austrian economists have recognized for decades, central planners cannot know enough to reliably achieve efficiency or whatever else they intend, and monetary policy is a form of central planning. In fact, it is an unusually pernicious form, whose interventions undermine the accuracy of particularly important prices — interest rates — and the ability of savers and investors to productively coordinate their behavior, which teaches us not to trust our current monetary policy saviors to live up to that billing, or that every monetary policy sniper qualifies as a monetary policy savior.
Hong Kong Protesters Ratchet Up Violence; Mall Captured, Subway Stations Attacked
Violent factions of the mostly peaceful Pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong took to the streets this once again this weekend – attacking two subway stations, igniting street fires and desecrating Chinese flags – one of which was set on fire before it was dropped into a dumpster and pushed into a river, according to the Associated Press and SCMP.
(Photos via SCMP, AP)
On Sunday, protesters ransacked a shopping mall in Sha Tin – targeting businesses with ties to mainland china, or otherwise seen as pro-government or pro-police. This drew a response from riot police, who deployed tear gas and beanbag rounds.
Demonstrators had vowed to disrupt airport operations by blocking access roads, but a heavy police deployment along road and rail links prevented travel chaos. The action shifted from Sha Tin to Tsing Yi and Kwai Fong, as protesters heckled police and damaged MTR facilities, before ending up at Prince Edward, a flashpoint for demonstrations as officers opened fire with beanbag rounds outside Mong Kok Police Station. –SCMP
This Week’s Report At a Glance
- Commerzbank plans to cut 4,300 jobs as a “strategic plan” after its share price hit an all-time low.
- Baltimore to fight crime by airplane surveillance of the entire city.
- China confirms arrest of American FedEx pilot over alleged munition smuggling.
- Is California about to get hit by a hurricane for the very first time in history?
- Bankrupt Illinois cities forced to cut services to fund pensions.
- Jeffrey Epstein paid doctors to medicate ‘sex slaves’ with tranquilizers.
- Saudi Aramco smells of False Flag.
- Barron Hilton, who expanded family’s Hilton Hotels empire, dies at 91.
- Climate change gathering in Hyde Park, London, left a massive amount of rubbish.
- NASA Probe spots bizarre black spot the size of Earth on Jupiter.
- Yellow Vests take to streets for round 45 of protests in Paris, 100+ arrested.
- Google’s quantum processor perform a calculation in 3 min 20 sec, today’s most advanced supercomputer would take around 10k years.
- Saudi Aramco picture shows all tanks hit same way, exactly the same spot, same limited damage.
- Solomon Islands sign agreement to establish diplomatic relations with China after cutting with Taiwan.
- China reveals new photos of a strange substance from the dark side of the Moon.
- Arab Spring 2.0?: “Sisi Must Leave” mass protest rocks Egypt’s streets overnight.
- Germany’s Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research: 90% of plastic waste polluting Earth’s oceans comes from Asia and Africa.
- University of Buffalo researchers created a lightweight plastic that is 14 times stronger and eight times lighter than steel.
- U.S. drone attack killed 30 farmers and wounded at least 40 in Afghanistan. “War On Terror” enters its 19th year.
- North America’s bird population: Nearly 3 billion wiped out since 1970.
- 12 tons of cocaine worth $575 million seized in Malaysia’s largest drug bust.
- Pompeo accuses Biden of covering up son’s corruption amid calls for Ukraine probe.
- This is the 16th straight week of massive anti-government protests started in June in HKG.
- Thomas Cook Travel Agent on brink of collapse.
- Remains of ‘Largest Flying Creature’ found in the UK.
- Rouhani to present Persian Gulf ‘peace plan’ at the UN.
- Huawei rolls out new flagship phones without Google apps.
- Hotel evacuated & streets closed as fire breaks out near NYC Times Square.
- Pakistan Airlines (PIA), country’s natl airline, operated dozens of flights from Islamabad without any passengers for 2 years.
- UK: 240 primary schools introduced lessons on “self-stimulation” for children as young as six.
- Mysterious magnetic pulses & evidence of groundwater discovered on Mars. The crust is far more powerfully magnetic than expected.
- Ed Buck’s bail set at $4 million after his arrest in connection with man’s overdose at West Hollywood home.
- Lindsey Graham Calls on DOJ to probe potential criminal acts by Biden family in Ukraine.
- Department of Homeland Security forced China’s state-owned Cosco to sell the Port of Long Beach over security concerns.
- Solar wind intensification is due within 36 hours. Could produce enhanced geomagnetic activity.
- Occasional Cortex: Democrats’ failure to impeach Trump is a ‘Big National Scandal’.
- Defiant Hong Kong protesters face off with police, denouncing police’s power abuse.
Strongest EQ in Europe M5.7 Albania
Strongest EQ in US M3.3 Oklahoma
Strongest EQ on the Planet M5.9 Indonesia
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